Joke · Ajahn Brahm
The abbot who forecast the winter
Content note: well-known joke (usually told of a Native American chief), told here without a source
The story — as told by Ajahn Brahm (verbatim captions)
this Monastery up in the north of India up in the mountains have you ever been up in the mountains not just Tibetan monasteries there's uh there's terad monasteries up there as well and there's this very famous teravan monastery up in the north of India in the province of lak and the old abber who was very wise and very spirit gifted and people thought he had psychic powers and the whole works he passed away they elected a new Abbott because he was a good meditator you know just like we almost elected a new Abbot last week in cber I got a bit concerned when the monk says oh they can have a spill about the new abot are you kicking me out said no it's in camber not in bodana Monastery and as soon as I got the new Abott you know he getting on to know the Autumn coming on to Winter they they asked what they used to ask the old AB he said you know this year is it going to be a very cold winter or is it going to be a mild winter because if it was a cold winter they'd have to get lots of fuel to actually to collect to keep the monastery warm because you know there's no electricity up in those remote areas and so the Abbott said let me meditate on this and I'll tell you tomorrow morning and the poor young monk you know an Abbot you know is actually only bluffing cuz his meditation wasn't that good so said how I'm going to answer my monks the following morning now they expect me to meditate and be able to predict the weather for the winter time you can't predict the weather but anyway what he did you know he called up you know the local meteorological office get the weather forecast without letting anybody know and so you know he got through to somebody he said I want the boss the professor so he got the professor meteorology and not telling you know it was a m asking he said what's a forecast for the winter and they and the professor well no one really knows but you know we think it's probably going to be a bit cold thank you so the following morning he he talked to his monks he said because of the power of my meditation I predict that this year will be a cold winter and all the monks thought wow we better collect lots of wood so they went collecting lots and lots of wood and after a week they got a lot of wood and then they asked you know is this enough and the thought oh I better not sort of make a mistake and ruin my reputation he said I will meditate on it tonight and of course that night he went on the phone when all the monks couldn't see him rang out the professor again and said you know the professor didn't know who was calling and he said uh the weather forecast for the winter how's it going and the professor said actually the signs are it's going to be a very cold winter you know the signs have got worse so thank you very much and the following morning he said because of my meditation I predict that this winter will be very cold so you better get some more wood so all the monks we really going all over the place collecting wood here collecting wood there and after one week huge amount of wood they collected and they said is this enough so the Mark said okay I'll meditate again tonight until you in the morning rang out the professor again and said said is it is it going to be a really cold winter and the Press said actually I recognize your voice you asked before it's going to be an extremely cold winter really yes extremely cold that's what the science are saying so the following morning you told all the monks get out there again get every scrap of Timber you can get any box wood any old wood it's going to be extremely cold winter and after another week the whole Monastery is full of wood could hardly move in it and he thought maybe I've gone over the top so he called up the professor again and he said are you absolutely sure it's going to be extremely cold winter the profess said this is going to be one of the worst Winters ever in this part of the world and that's when the monk said how do you know and the professor said because those monks in the monastery have been collecting wood
▶ Watch Ajahn Brahm tell it from 31:06 (to 35:12)
A reflection (in the spirit of Ajahn Brahm's talk)
A new abbot secretly phoned the weather professor, whose forecasts grew colder every week because, he explained, the monks were collecting so much firewood. Ajahn Brahm hears it as a joke about Wall Street. Experts often just follow each other. Nobody knows the future, so expect surprises and think for yourself.
In brief (our summary)
In a mountain monastery in Ladakh, a newly elected abbot, a poor meditator, is asked whether the winter will be cold, as the psychic old abbot used to be asked. He says he'll meditate on it, then secretly phones the meteorology professor: 'probably a bit cold'. He announces the forecast 'by the power of my meditation' and the monks gather wood. Each week he rings again and the forecast gets worse, until the monastery is crammed with timber. Finally he asks the professor how he can be so sure. 'Because those monks in the monastery have been collecting wood.'
Teaching point
Nobody really knows the future; experts often just follow each other — so think for yourself.
When this story may help
- relying on experts
- investing
- pretending to know
Themes
- prediction
- humour
- herd behaviour
- uncertainty
Source & credit
Told by Ajahn Brahm in Destiny, fate or free will? | Ajahn Brahm | 22-02-2015 · 2015-02-22 · ▶ watch from 31:06 to 35:12 · Buddhist Society of Western Australia
2 other tellings of this story
- Hypocrisy | Ajahn Brahm | 07-06-2013 · 2013-06-09 · ▶ watch from 6:38 to 9:38 · Buddhist Society of Western AustraliaJun 2013 telling: new Indian mountain abbot asked if winter will be cold — firewood/humility hypocrisy setup (short open).
- Infinite Wander | Ajahn Brahm | 11 December 2020 · 2020-12-11 · ▶ watch from 15:48 to 17:23 · Buddhist Society of Western AustraliaDec 2020 telling: Himalayan new abbot asked if winter will be cold; phones meteorology HQ (firewood/hypocrisy family).
Caption notes: YouTube auto-captions: unpunctuated, words left exactly as captioned. 'lak' = Ladakh; 'teravan'/'terad' = Theravada; 'cber' = Canberra; 'I business' probably = in business (garbled).
The narrative is Ajahn Brahm's own telling, quoted from the talk captions. The summary and reflection are Being Mindful Stories's editorial notes. Please credit the teacher and link the original talk. Markdown version