# The abbot who forecast the winter

- Teacher: Ajahn Brahm
- Type: Joke
- URL: https://beingmindfulstories.com/stories/brahm-abbot-predicts-cold-winter-firewood
- Themes: prediction, humour, herd behaviour, uncertainty
- Life situations: relying on experts, investing, pretending to know

## Synopsis (editorial summary)

In a mountain monastery in Ladakh, a newly elected abbot, a poor meditator, is asked whether the winter will be cold, as the psychic old abbot used to be asked. He says he'll meditate on it, then secretly phones the meteorology professor: 'probably a bit cold'. He announces the forecast 'by the power of my meditation' and the monks gather wood. Each week he rings again and the forecast gets worse, until the monastery is crammed with timber. Finally he asks the professor how he can be so sure. 'Because those monks in the monastery have been collecting wood.'

## The story, as told by Ajahn Brahm (verbatim captions)

monastery in Northern India about this time of the year actually probably around the November time and the old abbot... you know had passed away and they had a new abbot. The old abbot... was working too hard and got worn out and faded away. So they had to elect this new abbot. And anyway... if you are like a head monk you are supposed to be wise and good meditator and a good leader, but you are also supposed to have a few powers... in the back pocket, just in case and one of these powers which this abbot had in this monastery in the North of India... he would always be able to... sort of you know predict you know sort of catastrophes or whatever is happening... in particular at that time of the year the other monks depended on him and they did this... this year as well... they asked the abbot... is it going to be a cold winter? up in the foothills of the Himalayas... or is it going to be a mild winter? what's going to happen? the old abbot would always be very accurate he would be able to meditate and say very cold winter, mild winter, or in-between so they asked the new abbot and the abbot said "leave it with me tonight and I'll meditate on it" the new abbot wasn't as experienced as the old one so instead of meditating on it... he got out his cell phone and rang the Meteorological office ... asked to get through to the head-guy this was actually a professor. Abbot didn't tell he was a abbot of a monastery a famous monastery all he did is say, "ah... if you don't mind me asking what's the long term weather forecast in this area of North India?" and the professor said... "well... you know it would probably be... average cold" "thank you!" and so the following morning the abbot after the chanting told all the monks... "I perceive... I predict... it's going to be just an average cold winter up here so you better collect some wood to heat the monastery so all the monks... every other duty was stopped and they went to collect some wood and after one week of hard work collecting wood they (monks) asked, "is this enough?" and the abbot said, "leave it with me" "I'll meditate tonight", he wasn't lying, he did meditate, but also rang up afterwards he rang up the meteorological office and asked, "How's it looking?" and the professor said, "actually it's got worse" "I think it's going to be quite a cold winter", Abbot, "Thank you!" So the following morning, he told all the monks, get back to work, go collect some more wood, it's going to be a cold winter up here. so they worked very hard getting some wood and then... after another week, same thing (monks) "Is this enough"... (abbot ) "leave it with me" in the night when monks were asleep he got the mobile phone out and rang the professor anonymously (abbot) "how's it looking?" (professor) "oh, it's got much worse!" "it's going to be a really cold winter" (abbot) "thank you!" ... so... next morning told monks ... "It's going to be really cold" said the head monk (abbot) "collect more wood" so they really worked hard collected wood all over the place stacking it here, stacking it there and they were really exhausted and at the end of three weeks "is this enough?" (abbot) "leave it with me" and that night he called the professor again (abbot) "how's it going?" and the professor said... "phew... I've never seen anything like this" "the signs are it's going to be one of the coldest, bitterest winters ever seen in this part of North India" and the abbot... anonymous... the professor didn't know who he was abbot, "are you sure?", professor, "yes" (abbot) "how do you know?" "well" said the professor of meteorology "All those monks in the holy monastery are collecting wood like nobody's business

## Teaching point

Nobody really knows the future; experts often just follow each other — so think for yourself.

## Reflection (in the spirit of Ajahn Brahm's talk)

A new abbot secretly phoned the weather professor, whose forecasts grew colder every week because, he explained, the monks were collecting so much firewood. Ajahn Brahm hears it as a joke about Wall Street. Experts often just follow each other. Nobody knows the future, so expect surprises and think for yourself.

## Source

- [Celebrating Uncertainty | Ajahn Brahm](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piY2y_XMFN0) (Buddhist Society of Western Australia) — watch from 7:37 to 11:41: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piY2y_XMFN0&t=457s

Other tellings of this story:

- [Destiny, fate or free will? | Ajahn Brahm | 22-02-2015](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThfJtP9w3fI) (Buddhist Society of Western Australia) — watch from 31:06 to 35:12: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThfJtP9w3fI&t=1866s
- [Hypocrisy | Ajahn Brahm | 07-06-2013](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=semFlYAaBko) (Buddhist Society of Western Australia) — watch from 6:38 to 9:38: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=semFlYAaBko&t=398s
- [Infinite Wander | Ajahn Brahm | 11 December 2020](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEMJ3neFhM4) (Buddhist Society of Western Australia) — watch from 15:48 to 17:23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEMJ3neFhM4&t=948s
- [Fun Finding Mind | Ajahn Brahm | 8th April 2022](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxTmtmw6J_A) (Buddhist Society of Western Australia) — watch from 3:04 to 4:21: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxTmtmw6J_A&t=184s